CNBC has officially announced the winner of their Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge and GUESS WHAT, the number 1 currency trader is the winner of the entire contest!
I am thoroughly excited because it certainly adds an extra ounce of credibility to the market that I love the most!
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Currency Trader Wins CNBC Challenge
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Euro Needs Better Governance
Last week, the Forex Blog covered an IMF report that claimed the period of Dollar hegemony is nowhere near finished. This view appears to be widely held, and an American economist argued in a recent op-ed piece that the Euro...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.29.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 3:47 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Dollar Rallies on Stronger Consumer Confidence
Merrill to Sell $8.5 Billion of Shares as Thain Unloads Money-Losing CDOs
Home Prices in 20 [...]
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Zimbabwe Revalues Currency
The exchange rate between Zimbabwe's local currency and the US Dollar is currently 110 Billion:1, give or take a few zeroes. This complete collapse in confidence surrounding the currency is redolent of post-war Germany, when a wheelbarrow full of Deutsch...
The FX Market is Growing! Volume on the Rise
Last year, the Bank of International Settlements announced that FX market volume increased 71 percent between 2004 and 2007 and amidst all of the financial market turmoil, trading is on the rise once again.
The equity, commodity and bond markets have been particularly tough this year, causing many investors to cut back on risk, [...]
Monday, August 4, 2008
New President Will Help Dollar
By one measure, the US Dollar has lost 33.8% of its value under President George Bush, its worst performance by far under any one administration. The burgeoning twin deficits, lackluster economic performance, as well as the current environment of stagflation...
Canadian Dollar: Headed for More Losses?
In 2007, the Canadian Dollar was named Time Magazine’s Canadian Newsmaker of the year. Having hit a high of 0.9059 against the US dollar, it smoked its US counterpart. At the time, the Loonie skyrocketed because of a booming economy and skyrocketing oil prices.
However in the second half of 2008, the tides are [...]
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Dollar Bulls: More Tolerance to Pain?
For the US dollar, it is going to be a slow start to the new week with no major data due for release until Thursday. Consumer confidence and house prices will be out tomorrow and given the upside surprises last week, the data could be dollar positive. However investors will continue to be [...]
Saturday, August 2, 2008
IMF: Dollar Remains Paramount
In a recent report on the state of the Dollar, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared that the Dollar's unprecedented period of dominance will not likely come to an end anytime soon. This assertion seems to sharply contradict the 25%...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.28.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:00 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Big Week Ahead for US Dollar
2 Bank Taken Over by FDIC this Weekend
Hedge Funds May Post Worst Month in Five [...]
Friday, August 1, 2008
Credit Crisis Could Lift Yen, Franc
As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as...
US Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion
Even though the stock market dropped by the largest amount since 2000, the US dollar is shaking off risk aversion to rebound back towards its monthly highs against the Japanese Yen. I’ve been keeping a close eye on gold prices and the fall in gold this morning confirms that the markets have not been [...]
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fed Losing Control Over Monetary Policy
At the Fed's most recent monetary policy meeting, two Governors disagreed with the decision to hold rates constant, voting instead to hike rates by .25%. The most noteworthy aspect of the meeting was not the presence of dissent, but rather...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.25.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 3:04 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
- US New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods
- Ford Suffers Record Loss as Oil Shock Hits Industry
- Jobless Claims [...]
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
China May Dip Into Reserves
Yesterday, the Forex Blog reported that Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds appear to be losing confidence in the Dollar. To follow up with a specific example, a high-ranking Chinese policymaker recently suggested that China should move spend some of...
3 Currencies to Short
Over the past few weeks, it has becoming increasing clear which countries and their currencies are headed down the gutter:
The 3 currencies that I am most bearish for the near term are (in order of bearishness).
1. New Zealand Dollar - Targeting 70 Cents
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates last night [...]
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
FX Intervention: Still Possible
Earlier in the week, the Forex Blog reported that the potential for intervention in the forex markets seemed to have declined, due to a brief Dollar rally and toned-down rhetoric at the most recent G8 conference. However, we would be...
The 3Ps Push the Dollar Higher
The US dollar continues to recover this morning on the aftermath of the 3Ps - Paulson, Plosser and price of oil. Oil prices are trading on the $125 handle and since last Monday they have fallen more than 14 percent. If oil prices reach $100 a barrel, half of the Fed’s problems would [...]
Monday, July 28, 2008
Options Portend Currency Moves
Typically, only the savviest (or the most foolish) of forex traders dabble in currency options. Leverage is already so high (often exceeding 100:1) when trading forex directly, that the additional leverage gained from trading options can seem unnecessary. However, even...
Comments from Plosser and Paulson Drives Dollar Higher
US officials are out in force this morning talking up the dollar and attempting to restore some stability in the financial markets. With US Treasury Secretary Paulson saying that “a strong dollar is really very important” and Fed President Plosser calling for a rate hike before the economy turns around, it is not surprising to [...]
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Understanding what makes the Stock Market Move Up and Down
Successful investing requires more then just a little bit of know how and a dash of
luck. It requires a cool head, an analytical mind, and the ability to make quick
money decisions. This is especially true when investing in the stock market.
Investing naturally comes with a level of risk. The market's activity fluctuates on
a daily basis [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.22.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:22 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Paulson and Plosser Comments
Fed Appears to Focus on Inflaiton Ahead of Growth
Measures to Avoid the Worst Recession in 30 [...]
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Dollar Rangebound, but for How Long?
Over the last few months, the Dollar has bounced up and down against the Euro, but never breaking out of a range defined by $1.53 and $1.60. Analysts remain divided not only over if the Dollar will soon break-out, but...
Dollar Rangebound, but for How Long?
Over the last few months, the Dollar has bounced up and down against the Euro, but never breaking out of a range defined by $1.53 and $1.60. Analysts remain divided not only over if the Dollar will soon break-out, but...
Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures
For currency traders, the most interesting article in today’s Wall Street Journal is the one about volatility in the financial markets causing trading relationships to be in flux.
This article examines some of the correlations that we talk about regularly, between USD/JPY and stocks or the EUR/USD and oil. The premise of this article [...]
Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures
For currency traders, the most interesting article in today’s Wall Street Journal is the one about volatility in the financial markets causing trading relationships to be in flux.
This article examines some of the correlations that we talk about regularly, between USD/JPY and stocks or the EUR/USD and oil. The premise of this article [...]
Friday, July 25, 2008
Understanding Why EUR/JPY Hit a Record High
Although it has been relatively quiet in the foreign exchange market today, the Euro hit a record high against the Japanese Yen. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth - not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly [...]
Understanding Why EUR/JPY Hit a Record High
Although it has been relatively quiet in the foreign exchange market today, the Euro hit a record high against the Japanese Yen. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth - not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly [...]
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Dollar Intervention Loses Support
Some analysts are surprised by the evident unwillingness of Central Bankers to intervene on behalf of the Dollar, especially considering how common such "rescue plans" are becoming in other corners of the financial markets. Over the last couple months, all...
Dollar Intervention Loses Support
Some analysts are surprised by the evident unwillingness of Central Bankers to intervene on behalf of the Dollar, especially considering how common such "rescue plans" are becoming in other corners of the financial markets. Over the last couple months, all...
US Dollar and Euro: New Week, Same Drivers
It has been a very volatile week for the US dollar, even though compared to the beginning of the week, the exchange rate for the EUR/USD and USD/JPY has remained virtually unchanged.
On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.5922 while USD/JPY was trading at 106.26, not far from current levels, but of course [...]
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
US Dollar and Euro: New Week, Same Drivers
It has been a very volatile week for the US dollar, even though compared to the beginning of the week, the exchange rate for the EUR/USD and USD/JPY has remained virtually unchanged.
On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.5922 while USD/JPY was trading at 106.26, not far from current levels, but of course [...]
AUD: Closer to Parity
After a brief hiatus, the Australian Dollar has resumed its upward march against the Dollar; its next milestone will be a 25-year high against the Greenback. Of course, its continued strength is due to a combination of high domestic interest...
AUD: Closer to Parity
After a brief hiatus, the Australian Dollar has resumed its upward march against the Dollar; its next milestone will be a 25-year high against the Greenback. Of course, its continued strength is due to a combination of high domestic interest...
Stories Affecting the Dollar on 07.17.08
Bank earnings, oil prices and diversification are driving the dollar this morning. The big question is whether the problems with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and IndyMac have extended to JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup.
Although JPMorgan reported a 53 percent drop in profit, their decline was less than the market expected. Merrill Lynchhowever may [...]
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Stories Affecting the Dollar on 07.17.08
Bank earnings, oil prices and diversification are driving the dollar this morning. The big question is whether the problems with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and IndyMac have extended to JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup.
Although JPMorgan reported a 53 percent drop in profit, their decline was less than the market expected. Merrill Lynchhowever may [...]
Canada to Hold Rates
The economic picture in Canada is increasingly resembling that of the rest of the world: slowing growth and rising inflation. Likewise, the dilemma faced by the Bank of Canada mirrors that of the ECB and Fed. Even though Canadian inflation...
Canada to Hold Rates
The economic picture in Canada is increasingly resembling that of the rest of the world: slowing growth and rising inflation. Likewise, the dilemma faced by the Bank of Canada mirrors that of the ECB and Fed. Even though Canadian inflation...
Monday, July 21, 2008
What are Risk Reversals Saying about EUR/USD?
Risk reverals in the EUR/USD have hit an extreme level. The 25 delta 3 month risk reversals are at the highest level since June 2007. Whenever risk reversals hits critical levels, it indicates that everyone who wants to be long euros are already long and as a result, sentiment has hit an extreme. [...]
What are Risk Reversals Saying about EUR/USD?
Risk reverals in the EUR/USD have hit an extreme level. The 25 delta 3 month risk reversals are at the highest level since June 2007. Whenever risk reversals hits critical levels, it indicates that everyone who wants to be long euros are already long and as a result, sentiment has hit an extreme. [...]
Kettering University
So you wish to go to college and just can not find a great college to go to.You go to college but still have to go around with your resume trying to find a job in this tough economy.
Why not join a coop school that is ranked by US News and World Report as “the [...]
Kettering University
So you wish to go to college and just can not find a great college to go to.You go to college but still have to go around with your resume trying to find a job in this tough economy.
Why not join a coop school that is ranked by US News and World Report as “the [...]
Sunday, July 20, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.15.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:47 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Fannie, Freddie Tumble on Concern U.S. Rescue Will Sacrifice Shareholders
Dollar Drops to Record Low
Retail Sales, Producer Prices
Mortgage Insurers Raise the [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.15.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:47 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Fannie, Freddie Tumble on Concern U.S. Rescue Will Sacrifice Shareholders
Dollar Drops to Record Low
Retail Sales, Producer Prices
Mortgage Insurers Raise the [...]
UK Pound Forex Trading Forecast
Sterling drops in currency tradingThe UK pound is struggling right now in FX trading. The sterling is dopping in currency trading, and the UK pound forex trading forecast calls for further trouble for the currency.
Sterling is expected to do especially poorly in currency trading against the euro next week. Bloomberg reports on the UK pound forex trading forecast:
``Overall, the report about the U.K. Treasury added to negative sentiment against the pound,'' said Tom Levinson, a currency strategist in London at ING Bank NV. Levinson predicted the currency may fall to 80 pence versus the euro next week.
See Also
- Sterling in Currency Trading
Forex trading forecast for various currencies
UK Pound Forex Trading Forecast
Sterling drops in currency tradingThe UK pound is struggling right now in FX trading. The sterling is dopping in currency trading, and the UK pound forex trading forecast calls for further trouble for the currency.
Sterling is expected to do especially poorly in currency trading against the euro next week. Bloomberg reports on the UK pound forex trading forecast:
``Overall, the report about the U.K. Treasury added to negative sentiment against the pound,'' said Tom Levinson, a currency strategist in London at ING Bank NV. Levinson predicted the currency may fall to 80 pence versus the euro next week.
See Also
- Sterling in Currency Trading
Forex trading forecast for various currencies
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Dollar Falls to Record Low: Bernanke, Please Save Us!
The US dollar fell to a record low against the Euro as traders around the world grow increasingly worried about the health of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the overall US banking sector.
(Source: My Technical Analyst Jamie Saettele at DailyFX.com)
The collapse in the dollar today is entirely due to risk aversion and flight to safety [...]
Dollar Falls to Record Low: Bernanke, Please Save Us!
The US dollar fell to a record low against the Euro as traders around the world grow increasingly worried about the health of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the overall US banking sector.
(Source: My Technical Analyst Jamie Saettele at DailyFX.com)
The collapse in the dollar today is entirely due to risk aversion and flight to safety [...]
Forex is Risky
Without exception, every time there is a period of sustained volatility in forex markets, a flood of new forex accounts are opened as new traders try to capitalize on the action. Also, without fail, a concerned journalist inevitably takes it...
Forex is Risky
Without exception, every time there is a period of sustained volatility in forex markets, a flood of new forex accounts are opened as new traders try to capitalize on the action. Also, without fail, a concerned journalist inevitably takes it...
Friday, July 18, 2008
VIX Hits a 3 Month High, Traders Skeptical About Fed’s Power
No US economic data was released this morning explaining the listless action in the US dollar. Traders are hesitant because they know that things could change dramatically with the 3 event risks tomorrow that could shake up in the US dollar.
This is an excerpt from my daily article on DailyFX.com
The first is [...]
VIX Hits a 3 Month High, Traders Skeptical About Fed’s Power
No US economic data was released this morning explaining the listless action in the US dollar. Traders are hesitant because they know that things could change dramatically with the 3 event risks tomorrow that could shake up in the US dollar.
This is an excerpt from my daily article on DailyFX.com
The first is [...]
Credit Crisis is "Ongoing"
Who's familiar with the "song that never ends?" How about the credit crisis that never ends? Only a few months ago, the talking heads were trying to convince us that the worst of the credit crunch had already passed, and...
Commentary: Anatomy of a Currency Trader
In the context of fundamental currency analysis, we usually talk about inflation, interest rates, economic growth, politics, etc. But perhaps these variables mask some deeper "truth" in forex, specifically that there is some ultimate "force" guiding the decision-making processes of...
Credit Crisis is "Ongoing"
Who's familiar with the "song that never ends?" How about the credit crisis that never ends? Only a few months ago, the talking heads were trying to convince us that the worst of the credit crunch had already passed, and...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Lines this Weekend: Some Good, Some Bad
It was all about the lines this weekend. People around the nation queued up for hours, but for very different reasons:
1. Apple Store – Hundreds of people waiting for the 3G iPhone at the 5th Ave store (or any Apple retail store across the nation)
Word on the street: 5 hour wait and [...]
The Lines this Weekend: Some Good, Some Bad
It was all about the lines this weekend. People around the nation queued up for hours, but for very different reasons:
1. Apple Store – Hundreds of people waiting for the 3G iPhone at the 5th Ave store (or any Apple retail store across the nation)
Word on the street: 5 hour wait and [...]
Chinese Yuan Appreciation to Slow
In the year-to-date, the Chinese Yuan has already appreciated 6.5% against the USD, the fastest pace since the currency was famously revalued three years ago. This upward pressure has been built largely on the continuing inflow of speculative "hot money,"...
Chinese Yuan Appreciation to Slow
In the year-to-date, the Chinese Yuan has already appreciated 6.5% against the USD, the fastest pace since the currency was famously revalued three years ago. This upward pressure has been built largely on the continuing inflow of speculative "hot money,"...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Oil Hits Record Highs, Geopolitical Risks Hurts the Dollar
Oil prices are driving the currency market. Over the past 2 days, prices have increased more than $10 a barrel. As a result, the US dollar has weakened across board, particularly against the Australian and Canadian dollars. The AUD/USD even hit a new 25 year high this morning.
For the greenback, politics is [...]
Oil Hits Record Highs, Geopolitical Risks Hurts the Dollar
Oil prices are driving the currency market. Over the past 2 days, prices have increased more than $10 a barrel. As a result, the US dollar has weakened across board, particularly against the Australian and Canadian dollars. The AUD/USD even hit a new 25 year high this morning.
For the greenback, politics is [...]
Oil Hits Record Highs, Geopolitical Risks Hurts the Dollar
Oil prices are driving the currency market. Over the past 2 days, prices have increased more than $10 a barrel. As a result, the US dollar has weakened across board, particularly against the Australian and Canadian dollars. The AUD/USD even hit a new 25 year high this morning.
For the greenback, politics is [...]
G8 Ignores Currencies
Leading up to last week's G8 summit in Japan, it was rumored that "volatility" in forex markets would be a hot topic of discussion. Thus, it came as quite a shock to analysts and investors that the final declaration failed...
G8 Ignores Currencies
Leading up to last week's G8 summit in Japan, it was rumored that "volatility" in forex markets would be a hot topic of discussion. Thus, it came as quite a shock to analysts and investors that the final declaration failed...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
What Could be a Big Surprise for the US Dollar?
This is an excerpt from my DailyFX Report on the day’s currency market movements:
The currency market was fairly quiet today with the US dollar rallying against some currencies and falling against others.
Jobless claims were the only piece of data released and filings for unemployment dropped by 58k to the lowest level in 3 [...]
What Could be a Big Surprise for the US Dollar?
This is an excerpt from my DailyFX Report on the day’s currency market movements:
The currency market was fairly quiet today with the US dollar rallying against some currencies and falling against others.
Jobless claims were the only piece of data released and filings for unemployment dropped by 58k to the lowest level in 3 [...]
Geopolitics Affect Dollar
The narrative in forex markets had recently become so cut-and-dried, that investors may have forgotten that in the long-term, a variety of factors weigh on currencies. Last week, they were sternly reminded of this fact when tensions in the Middle...
Geopolitics Affect Dollar
The narrative in forex markets had recently become so cut-and-dried, that investors may have forgotten that in the long-term, a variety of factors weigh on currencies. Last week, they were sternly reminded of this fact when tensions in the Middle...
Monday, July 14, 2008
BRIC vs. PIGS from Ritholtz
I really like the post on Barry Ritholtz’s blog The Big Picture , so hopefully he doesn’t mind that I republish it
BRIC vs PIGS
Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, July 09, 2008 | 09:15 AM
I was at a lunch recently with about 10 people. One of the participants was an analyst from Portugal — [...]
BRIC vs. PIGS from Ritholtz
I really like the post on Barry Ritholtz’s blog The Big Picture , so hopefully he doesn’t mind that I republish it
BRIC vs PIGS
Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, July 09, 2008 | 09:15 AM
I was at a lunch recently with about 10 people. One of the participants was an analyst from Portugal — [...]
Friday: Wild Ride In The US Stock Markets
What a week! Everyone’s been talking about the possibility of an oversold bounce, and yet every time it appears to be happening…..belly flop! The financial media and many analysts have been saying the “bottom is in”, or a financial institution just showed “the kitchen sink quarter”, and “the worst is behind us”. How many times [...]
Friday: Wild Ride In The US Stock Markets
What a week! Everyone’s been talking about the possibility of an oversold bounce, and yet every time it appears to be happening…..belly flop! The financial media and many analysts have been saying the “bottom is in”, or a financial institution just showed “the kitchen sink quarter”, and “the worst is behind us”. How many times [...]
Sunday, July 13, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.09.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Canadian Dollar Skyrockets After Housing Market Numbers and Oil
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Euro - Iran tests missiles
Trichet Reminding the Markets [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.09.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
Read my Daily report on DailyFX.com
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Canadian Dollar Skyrockets After Housing Market Numbers and Oil
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Euro - Iran tests missiles
Trichet Reminding the Markets [...]
Emerging Markets: To Hedge or Not to Hedge?
2008 has witnessed an explosion of volatility in emerging markets, affecting both debt and equity securities. Fluctuations have been especially dramatic in the forex markets, compounding the turmoil and skewing returns for foreign investors. The South African Rand and Brazilian...
Emerging Markets: To Hedge or Not to Hedge?
2008 has witnessed an explosion of volatility in emerging markets, affecting both debt and equity securities. Fluctuations have been especially dramatic in the forex markets, compounding the turmoil and skewing returns for foreign investors. The South African Rand and Brazilian...
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Is Bernanke Trying to Tell US Something About Interest Rates?
With stocks falling close to a 2 year low yesterday, Fed President Ben Bernanke attempted to stabilize the stock market and the US dollar by saying that they they are considering “extending the duration” of their emergency lending facilities to investment banks.
The Fed is clearly worried about the volatility in stocks and they [...]
Is Bernanke Trying to Tell US Something About Interest Rates?
With stocks falling close to a 2 year low yesterday, Fed President Ben Bernanke attempted to stabilize the stock market and the US dollar by saying that they they are considering “extending the duration” of their emergency lending facilities to investment banks.
The Fed is clearly worried about the volatility in stocks and they [...]
UK Housing Crisis Could Affect Pound
When one hears the phrase "housing crisis" uttered, the US immediately comes to mind. Not without reason, of course, since the US housing market is the largest in the world, and the scope of any US housing crisis is sure...
Friday, July 11, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.08.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Fears of Loan Defaults Drive Sharp Volatility in Stocks
Pump Prices Hurt Americans Not Just in the Pocketbooks
G8 Leaders Playing Down Their Power to Reduce Oil [...]
America’s Carmart Buy Alert
America’s Carmart, Inc. (CRMT) is barreling forward and producing very impressive results for shareholders in a very challenging environment. The company’s fourth-quarter results, reported just last week, contained big improvements in both revenue and income from the same period last year. After the solid performance, shares of CRMT rallied and set a new 52-week high.
[...]
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Happy 4th of July!
Happy 4th of July!
The United States declared independence in 1776, which means that this year we are celebrating our 232nd year of independence!
See you on Monday!
For more details on July 4, click here for Wikipedia
Fed Increases Liquidity
In a bid designed to placate skittish investors, America's Federal Reserve Bank announced that it will extend the duration of its liquidity facilities at least through 2008 and possible into 2009. It is hoped that the continued enabling (which began...
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Losses Could Top 100k
Non-farm payrolls for the month of June are due for release this Thursday, but with the Federal Reserve no longer looking to cut interest rates, will the degree of payroll growth actually have meaningful impact on the US dollar?
Here is the NFP Preview that I wrote for DailyFX.com
The NFP number is being released [...]
Inflation or Economic Growth?
Global capital markets remain caught in a tug of war between inflation and economic growth. For most of 2008, the economic growth story prevailed as the Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates aggressively to cushion the blow from the housing...
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.02.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:11 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Europe Producer-Price Inflation Accelerates to Record
Overdue U.S. Home-Equity Credit Lines Climb the Most Since 1987, ABA Says
Job Losses in U.S. Increased 47% in June on [...]
Vietnam Nears Crisis
In what some analysts have termed 'an act of desperation,' Vietnam has devalued its currency, the Dong, by .5%. Negative pressure had been building above the Dong for months, due to a burgeoning trade deficit, sagging stock market, and a...
Monday, July 7, 2008
Euro Headed Higher, US Dollar Back to the Drawing Board
We are back to the drawing board with the US dollar. Strong consumer spending and the lowest unemployment rate in 14 years could force the ECB to backtrack on their words and actually prepare the market up for more than one rate hike in the third quarter. The June consumer price index is expected [...]
The Ripple Effect Of Rising Inflation And Housing Slump
Over the past year, there has been a flood of articles discussing the hard times many individuals and families are going through. There have also been a large and growing number of reports detailing the precarious shape that builders, automakers, financials and various other firms are in.
The combination of rising prices for gas, food and [...]
Sunday, July 6, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 07.01.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:04 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
RBA Statement a Tad Dovish as Bank Focuses on Growth Risks
Tankan confidence falls less than expected
German June Unemployment Falls to Lowest in 16 Years
Crude Oil [...]
Commentary: Anatomy of a Currency Trader
In the context of fundamental currency analysis, we usually talk about inflation, interest rates, economic growth, politics, etc. But perhaps these variables mask some deeper "truth" in forex, specifically that there is some ultimate "force" guiding the decision-making processes of...
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Dollar: End of Quarter Temperature Check
It is the end of the quarter and the end to the first half of the year which has been a brutal one for many fund managers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 14% since the beginning of the year and 7% since the beginning of the quarter.
As for the US dollar, since January [...]
ECB Hikes Rates
In a move that will shock some investors but please others, the European Central Bank has raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, to 4.25%. On several recent occasions, Jean-Claude Trichet had alluded to the possibility, in connection...
Friday, July 4, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.30.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 7:02 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
China’s Export Machine Threatened by Rising Costs
Business Scrambe to Offset Rising Costs of Transportation
Jobs Report will Provide Clues on Growth and Inflation
Fed’s Priority is Likely [...]
Yen Back in Vogue
Volatility, the perennial enemy of the carry trade, has returned with a vengeance. The US stock market, a proxy for global risk appetite, has fallen significantly (nearly 20%) over the last six months, a trend that has accelerated over the...
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Dow Breaks Bear Stearns Low, EURJPY Hits Record High
Two significant milestones have been reached in the financial markets today, one in stocks and one in currencies.
On an intraday and possibly even on a closing basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the Bear Stearns low. It was in the middle of March that the Bear Stearns debacle became public, [...]
Dow Breaks Bear Stearns Low, EURJPY Hits Record High
Two significant milestones have been reached in the financial markets today, one in stocks and one in currencies.
On an intraday and possibly even on a closing basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the Bear Stearns low. It was in the middle of March that the Bear Stearns debacle became public, [...]
RMB may Accelerate Post-Olympics
The first half of 2008 has come to a dramatic end, and it's official: China's stock market was the world's worst performer, finishing down 48%. Ironically, some analysts believe this may be a harbinger for a faster appreciation of the...
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Fed Not Hawkish Enough
The Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates but a rate hike is not imminent. For the first time since August, the central bank has left rates unchanged at 2 percent. Although the FOMC statement is hawkish, the US dollar has failed to react because currency traders were looking for more. [...]
Fed Not Hawkish Enough
The Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates but a rate hike is not imminent. For the first time since August, the central bank has left rates unchanged at 2 percent. Although the FOMC statement is hawkish, the US dollar has failed to react because currency traders were looking for more. [...]
How To Beat A Market That Is Trending Lower
THE FINAL NUMBERS - ADIOS 2nd QUARTER
NEWS: The markets closed the last day of the quarter on a mixed note with the Dow and S&P 500 holding onto small gains and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 continuing the slide. The Dow was up a mere 3 points when the closing bell rang after being up [...]
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
FOMC Preview: What to Expect from the Fed
The summer doldrums may not last for long with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision right around the corner. Over the past few weeks, many currency pairs including the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been trading in a range as the market tries to figure out how central banks will respond to the continual rise [...]
Barclays Introduces New ETN
The field of currency exchange-traded products keeps getting better and better. Only a few years ago, the selection of such products was quite small, and limited to the major currencies (i.e. Dollar, Euro, Yen). Next came the introduction of riskier...
Monday, June 30, 2008
Consumer Confidence Hits 16 Year Lows
The burden of high energy prices and a weak labor market has sent consumer confidence to the lowest levels in 16 years. Top that off with the fact that the Dow cracked the March lows this morning and the Fed’s deliberation today and tomorrow should heat up. Bernanke will need to walk fine [...]
Sunday, June 29, 2008
CIRCOR International: Aggressive Growth Buy Alert
CIRCOR International, Inc.’s (CIR) share price has had an amazing year in a tough environment, rallying from a low point just above $35 to a high-water mark of over $54. The company just reported another healthy quarter in which income was up sharply from the same period last year. Based upon the current-year earnings projection, [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.24.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Bernanke Plays `Dangerous Game’ Signaling Higher Rates as Growth Stagnates
Dow Chemical Will Raise Prices as Much as 25% in July on Record Fuel Costs
Financial Firms [...]
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Indian Rupee at 14-Month Low
The Indian Rupee has fallen to a 14-month low as a result of the sagging Indian stock market and surging inflation. Foreign investors have withdrawn $5.7 Billion from the Indian stock market in the first half of 2008, reinforcing the...
Federal Reserve vs. European Central Bank
The Federal Reserve begins their two day monetary policy meeting tomorrow and judging from the price action of the US dollar and reports from the press, dollar bulls are treading carefully on the fear that the Federal Reserve will be non-committal.
The continual rise in food and energy prices is adding to the burden [...]
Friday, June 27, 2008
Fed Holds Rates
At its most recent meeting, the Fed voted to hold rates steady at 2%. Only one week ago, 90% of investors (based on interest rate futures) had expected the Fed to lower rates. What changed? In the words of one...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.23.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:47 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Saudi oil boost fails to alleviate concerns
Eurozone indicators raise stagflation fears
Fed Fund Futures Flawed?
Dollar to get No Fed Aid?
More IPOs Are Pulled Than Priced
Capital Flow [...]
Thursday, June 26, 2008
The Carry Trade Explained
The Carry Trade is one of the simplest strategies in forex, and if executed correctly, can also be one of the most profitable. The basic mechanics of a carry trade involve borrowing in one currency that offers a low interest...
Can Saudi Arabia Drive Down the Price of Oil?
This weekend, Saudi Arabia will be hosting an Oil Summit in the city of Jeddah, located on the coast of the Red Sea. They have invited executives from oil companies, leaders of nations and the world’s largest oil producers.
The big question for markets is whether or not Saudi Arabia can drive down the price [...]
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
US has History of Intervention
The looming possibility of forex intervention in response to the Dollar's continued weakness is causing an uproar in forex circles. Some analysts don't feel intervention is a real possibility because it is so inconsistent with the ideology espoused by the...
What Happens if UK CPI is Greater than 3%?
The British pound was hands down the best performing currency today as it rose against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. This was partially due to dollar weakness and the expectation that tomorrow’s consumer price figures will be hot.
Like the rest of the world, the UK has not been immune [...]
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
EU Inflation CounterBalances Oil
Forex analysts reckon the two most powerful forces weighing on the Dollar are commodity prices and European prices, so-to-speak. With regard to commodity prices, it seems plausible that rising commodity prices have contributed to a weaker Dollar, as much as...
5 Different Ways to Trade Currencies
Here’s an educational video of Sue Herera (CNBC) and I talking about the 5 Different Ways to trade Currencies. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Hirsch’s Long View vs Saudi’s Short View: How To Invest?
If I were asked to recommend an energy advisory team for the next President, I’d start with Robert Hirsch. Hirsch is a defense planning expert who has headed up major consulting assignments for the Defense Department among other clients and in 2005 published a major study of the impacts and potential mitigation of [...]
Kathy Lien on Fox Business Part 2
I will be a featured guest on Fox Business all next week with Alexis Glick. Tune in at 9am-10am ET
As a result, there will be no “In the Financial Papers”
Sunday, June 22, 2008
It’s An “Educated-Take-All” Economy
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Barack Obama said that he was trying to put together tax and spending policies that dealt with two challenges. One is the … [visit site to read more]
[...]
US Consumer Prices, EU Referendum and G8 Meeting Weighs on Euro
Since the beginning of this week, the Euro has fallen more than 500 pips against the US dollar, its biggest weekly gain in 3 years. The prospect of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in August and/or September as well as key event risks over the next 48 hours has currency traders rushing [...]
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Bright Future for Emerging Currencies
At the recent Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, forex was a popular topic of discussion among the investment strategists in attendance. Specifically, many of the participants were bullish about emerging market currencies. This is somewhat ironic, since these currencies have marked...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.13.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:48minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Consumer Confidence Hits 28 Year Lows
Consumer Prices Hot on Headline Level, Tepid on Core
Oil Falls as Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi Says Meeting Will `Stabilize’ Prices
Stimulus Checks Aid [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.13.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:48minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Consumer Confidence Hits 28 Year Lows
Consumer Prices Hot on Headline Level, Tepid on Core
Oil Falls as Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi Says Meeting Will `Stabilize’ Prices
Stimulus Checks Aid [...]
Friday, June 20, 2008
Intervention Drawing Near
G8 finance ministers met last week to discuss the detrimental effects of rising (commodity) prices on the global economy. Oil prices and commodity prices have in some cases doubled over the last year, contributing to a nasty surge in worldwide...
Intervention Drawing Near
G8 finance ministers met last week to discuss the detrimental effects of rising (commodity) prices on the global economy. Oil prices and commodity prices have in some cases doubled over the last year, contributing to a nasty surge in worldwide...
Fed Fund Futures are Pricing in 67% Chance of Rate Hike in Aug and 97% Chance in Sept
Could the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates? You betcha.
At least that’s what futures traders are banking on:
According to the latest Fed fund futures, the market has already priced in a 67 percent chance of a 25bp rate hike in August and a 97 percent chance of a rate hike in September.
The following [...]
Fed Fund Futures are Pricing in 67% Chance of Rate Hike in Aug and 97% Chance in Sept
Could the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates? You betcha.
At least that’s what futures traders are banking on:
According to the latest Fed fund futures, the market has already priced in a 67 percent chance of a 25bp rate hike in August and a 97 percent chance of a rate hike in September.
The following [...]
Thursday, June 19, 2008
4 Types of Forex Trades
In a recent article for Seeking Alpha, financial journalist Ray Hendon offered an overview on the four principal strategies employed in the forex markets: carry trade, technical trade, fundamental trade, and arbitrage. The carry trade, which involves borrowing in a...
4 Types of Forex Trades
In a recent article for Seeking Alpha, financial journalist Ray Hendon offered an overview on the four principal strategies employed in the forex markets: carry trade, technical trade, fundamental trade, and arbitrage. The carry trade, which involves borrowing in a...
Tax Rebates Drives Stronger Retail Sales
Retail sales increased 1.0 percent last month as tax rebates and higher gasoline prices drove stronger consumer spending. With the exception of the Miscellaneous category, retail sales increased across the board. There was surprisingly no underlying weakness in the report but jobless claims did tick higher. The biggest increase in spending came from gas [...]
Tax Rebates Drives Stronger Retail Sales
Retail sales increased 1.0 percent last month as tax rebates and higher gasoline prices drove stronger consumer spending. With the exception of the Miscellaneous category, retail sales increased across the board. There was surprisingly no underlying weakness in the report but jobless claims did tick higher. The biggest increase in spending came from gas [...]
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Euro Aloof to Irish "No"
Over the weekend, the people of Ireland resoundingly rejected the Lisbon Treaty, throwing up roadblock in the way of the most recent attempt to solidify the bond of the EU. Surprisingly, the Euro shrugged off the news and actually rose...
Euro Aloof to Irish "No"
Over the weekend, the people of Ireland resoundingly rejected the Lisbon Treaty, throwing up roadblock in the way of the most recent attempt to solidify the bond of the EU. Surprisingly, the Euro shrugged off the news and actually rose...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.12.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:14minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
US Retail Sales Increase More than Expected
Japan to Raise Meat Prices as Corn Boosts Feed Costs
ECB Tells Market Rate Hike Likely to be One-Off
The topics at [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.12.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:14minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
US Retail Sales Increase More than Expected
Japan to Raise Meat Prices as Corn Boosts Feed Costs
ECB Tells Market Rate Hike Likely to be One-Off
The topics at [...]
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Euro Outshines Yen
Most of the stories and analysis featured on the Forex Blog concern the Dollar, or at the very least, how other currencies are performing relative to the Dollar. But there are many important currency pairs that don't involve the Greenback,...
Euro Outshines Yen
Most of the stories and analysis featured on the Forex Blog concern the Dollar, or at the very least, how other currencies are performing relative to the Dollar. But there are many important currency pairs that don't involve the Greenback,...
Will Retail Sales be Strong or Weak?
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com and Abhi Chakraborty
Published: June 11, 2008
US retail sales are due for release on Thursday and the degree of consumer spending could play a big role in determining where the US dollar may head next. Despite continued deterioration in the labor market, economists expect retail sales to [...]
Will Retail Sales be Strong or Weak?
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com and Abhi Chakraborty
Published: June 11, 2008
US retail sales are due for release on Thursday and the degree of consumer spending could play a big role in determining where the US dollar may head next. Despite continued deterioration in the labor market, economists expect retail sales to [...]
Monday, June 16, 2008
Anavex: Outlook For This Drug Company
More than 5.2 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease. Another 7.7 million Americans will suffer with it by 2030, and another 16 million will suffer by 2050. And there’s a yearly price tag of $148 billion to treat these patients.
No one is quite sure what causes the disease that gradually robs sufferers of memory [...]
Anavex: Outlook For This Drug Company
More than 5.2 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease. Another 7.7 million Americans will suffer with it by 2030, and another 16 million will suffer by 2050. And there’s a yearly price tag of $148 billion to treat these patients.
No one is quite sure what causes the disease that gradually robs sufferers of memory [...]
5 Reasons Why the US Dollar Will Not Hit a New Low
Despite the prospect of a rate hike from the European Central Bank, here are 5 reasons why I do not expect the US dollar to hit a new record low against the Euro:
1) Tug of War Between Bernanke and Trichet
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Trichet appear to be competing for the Title of [...]
5 Reasons Why the US Dollar Will Not Hit a New Low
Despite the prospect of a rate hike from the European Central Bank, here are 5 reasons why I do not expect the US dollar to hit a new record low against the Euro:
1) Tug of War Between Bernanke and Trichet
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Trichet appear to be competing for the Title of [...]
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Rouble: The Next Reserve Currency
Apparently, Russia has aspirations to turn its currency, the Rouble, into an international reserve currency. Moreover, according to an official with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this plan is not that far-fetched. Despite soaring inflation and political oppression, Russia's economy...
Rouble: The Next Reserve Currency
Apparently, Russia has aspirations to turn its currency, the Rouble, into an international reserve currency. Moreover, according to an official with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this plan is not that far-fetched. Despite soaring inflation and political oppression, Russia's economy...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.11.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:47minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
China and Vietnam Takes Steps to Clamp Down on Inflation
Bond Markets Pricing in a Fed Rate Hike
ECB Member Stark Says Central Bank Does Not Plan Series [...]
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.11.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:47minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
China and Vietnam Takes Steps to Clamp Down on Inflation
Bond Markets Pricing in a Fed Rate Hike
ECB Member Stark Says Central Bank Does Not Plan Series [...]
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Soros Bearish on Dollar
George Soros, one of the most well-respected investors who sits in the same echelon as Warren Buffet, just released his book on the current state of the world's financial markets. His conclusion is that a "super-bubble" is forming. Connecting to...
Soros Bearish on Dollar
George Soros, one of the most well-respected investors who sits in the same echelon as Warren Buffet, just released his book on the current state of the world's financial markets. His conclusion is that a "super-bubble" is forming. Connecting to...
5 Things that Move the Currency Market
Here’s a video Sue Herera of CNBC and I talking about the 5 Things that Move the Currency Market. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.
5 Things that Move the Currency Market
Here’s a video Sue Herera of CNBC and I talking about the 5 Things that Move the Currency Market. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Vietnam Devalues Dong
The Central Bank of Vietnam has effectively devalued its national currency, the Dong, to bring it in line with market fundamentals. Pressure had been building under the Dong due to soaring inflation, currently estimated at 25%. While 2% devaluation was...
Vietnam Devalues Dong
The Central Bank of Vietnam has effectively devalued its national currency, the Dong, to bring it in line with market fundamentals. Pressure had been building under the Dong due to soaring inflation, currently estimated at 25%. While 2% devaluation was...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.10.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
- Bank of Canada Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
- Oil Prices Drive US Trade Deficit Higher
- Bernanke Reiterates Concern for Inflation
- Oil Jump Catches Speculators Off [...]
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Talking up the Dollar
When it comes to forex, the old adage actions speak louder than words doesn't always hold. In fact, words can be quite effective on their own in holding down or propping up a currency. For a while, the threat of...
Ben Bernanke: Turning a Blind Eye to Weak US Data?
On Monday evening, Bernanke reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to contain inflation, driving the US dollar higher in what would otherwise have been a quiet Asian trading session. Over the past 24 hours,the US government has come out with all guns blazing as US Treasury Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Governors Geithner and Fisher have commented [...]
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
How Far Has the Dollar Really Fallen?
Kurt Brouwer offers his take on the falling USD over at Fundmastery Blog: Let’s start with how far the dollar has fallen. One problem with our media is that the news of the day is often one-sided and it seldom...
US Dollar Intervention: Is it Possible?
Is intervention in the US dollar possible?
Well anything is possible in this world, but despite jawboning by Bernanke and Paulson, I do not expect physical intervention in the dollar by the US government.
The last time that the Federal Reserve intervened in the currency markets was shortly after the launch of the Euro. [...]
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Shekel is One of the Big Boys
The Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) Bank, which performs the thankless job of settling the nearly $4 Trillion in currency trades completed each day, recently announced that it will now settle trades involving the Israeli Shekel. This is quite an honor...
Photos from Asia!
Here are some photos from my Asia trip. Enjoy!
Stop #1: The traffic in Ho Chi Minh City
Monday, June 9, 2008
Dollar Deeps Further on Uneployment Rapid Growth
The U. S. dollar dropped down today against as the unemployment rate soared in the U. S. Yesterday EUR/USD gained from the hawkish statement by Jean-Claude Trichet (he said that he will probably raise the interest rates on ECB’s next meeting), today it grows because of the poor U.S. fundamentals.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 49,000 in May — below the expected 60,000 dropdown, but above the revised April 28,000 loss in the jobs. Unemployment [...]
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Is There An Asian Financial Crisis On The Horizon?
I posted yesterday about how a strengthening US Dollar could potentially benefit Israeli stocks that trade in the US. I was asked by some readers how come I think that the USD is poised for a rally? The answer…FIFO.
FIFO is an accounting term that stands for ‘first in first out.’ With the global economy on [...]
Saturday, June 7, 2008
ECB, Unemployment Weigh on Dollar
In the near future, this day may be looked back on as important in the battle between the Dollar and Euro that is currently being waged. The previous month had been relatively kind to the Dollar, which had gradually clawed...
Dollar Tries to Keep Yesterday Gains
Dollar is still trying to hold its yesterday gains against euro, as it can benefit from the fundamental indicators released today in U.S. EUR/USD rose only from 1.5433 to 1.5449 today after losing more than 100 pips yesterday.
Productivity in the nonfarm business sector grew at 2.6% annually and seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter of 2008 — slightly better than the preliminary estimate (2.5%).
ISM services (non-manufacturing) index for [...]
Friday, June 6, 2008
China's Forex Reserves Near $2 Trillion
When China's foreign exchange reserves breached the $1 Trillion mark in November 2006, it was a momentous occasion. Over the following 18 months, however, analysts yawned as the reserves nearly doubled in size. In the month of April, alone, China...
Pro Commentary Lite ... 5th June 2008 ... EURUSD
An excerpt from Pro Commentary
Price: 1.5390
| Resistance: | 1.5425 | 1.5460 | 1.5490 | 1.5531 |
| Support: | 1.5383 | 1.5361 | 1.5328 | 1.5283 |
| Bias: | The 1.5361-85 area provides support while gains will need a break back above 1.5500 and 1.5627 |
| Daily Bullish: | Extreme tight range trading didn’t really clears up the picture too well but overall we’ve not seen a break below the 1.5361-85 support identified yesterday. Thus morning has seen a dip to 1.5383 and if this holds then we should see a move back above the 1.5425 pivot area for a recovery back to 1.5482-00 again but beyond that we need to be cautious. Next major resistance would be the old 1.5627 corrective high. Recovery from 1.5361 would imply gains to 1.5560. |
| MT Bullish: | 5th June: We are hitting key supports now between 1.5361-85 but where we see the low affects how far a recovery can be seen. Above 1.5600-27 would be needed to suggest potential for a recovery towards 1.5720-60. |
| Daily Bearish: | This morning’s losses have hit the 1.5383 support and even if it breaks I still see support at 1.5361 and each of these two supports have potential for a recovery to 1.5500 at least. Thus only look for extension lower on a break below 1.5360 and if seen it should trigger follow-through to 1.5328 minimum and probably to the 1.5255-83 area at least. |
| MT Bearish: | 5th June: We are now testing critical supports but only below 1.5360 suggests a more direct attack back at the 1.5283 low and possibly even further to 1.5188 while a larger target is at 1.5082. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
4th June
We have seen the decline to the 76.4% retracement at 1.5409 perfectly and this now provides the next test as to whether we are seeing a triangle within a larger consolidation or whether we could see a move all the way down to 1.5283 again in a possible flat correction. I can’t even rule out loses beyond should the 1.5817 high have been Wave (b).
In any event, at this point I feel an internal 261.8% projection in a minor Wave iii rests at 1.5361 and this should be the most we see today. Before 1.5361 is a small 161.8% projection in a minor Wave c at 1.5385 so this 1.5361-85 area appears to be important.
Breach would be bearish for 1.5328 and 1.5283.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
Probably the most comprehensive technical report in the market
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Dollar Rises to 3-Month High
After sinking to a record low of $1.60 against the Euro in April, the Dollar has rallied to a 3-month high. According to analysts, the interest rate story appears to have driven the sudden reversal. In short, expectations surrounding the...
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Bernanke: No More Rate Cuts
Over the last few weeks, the focal point of discussion surrounding the current US economic crisis has shifted from economic growth to inflation, and commentators are now invoking the stagflation of the 1970's. Moreover, the Fed is experiencing mounting pressure...
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
A Chink in the Euro
The upcoming 10th Anniversary of the European Central Bank is being greeted with a flurry of commentary and analysis of its brief history. The consensus is that both the bank and the Euro currency over which it presides have come...
Monday, June 2, 2008
Headed for Asia!
I will be in Asia for 2 weeks, so there will be no new posts on this blog. For Currency Comments, please visit DailyFX.com
If you are in Asia, please come by to say hi! I would love to meet you at one of my upcoming seminars:
May 31 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Asia Trader and [...]
Sunday, June 1, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.23.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Existing Home Sales Drop, Medium Price of a Home Dropped
Asia to cut Subsidies as Oil Prices Hit $135
Ford Hit By Rising Oil
Think $4 Gas is [...]
Korea May Regulate Borrowing
Over the last two years, South Korea's overseas borrowings more than doubled, to $388 Billion. Nervous, perhaps, that Korean businesses may be overextending themselves, the government is seeking to regulate such activities. Based on the way the forex markets responded...
Saturday, May 31, 2008
How Does an Oil Crisis Impact the US Dollar?
Oil prices are rising and the US dollar is falling, but is this the natural relationship between these two assets? Taking a look back at the two prominent oil shocks of the past four decades (1973 and 1979), we see that this is not necessarily the case.
1973 Oil Crisis: Initially Dollar [...]
Bank of Canada Must Lower Rates
According to one index, commodity prices have risen 40% over the last twelve months. One would therefore expect the Canadian economy to be commensurately strong. According to the most current economic data, however, just the opposite is true. Wholesale manufacturing...
Friday, May 30, 2008
Problems With Blog
Unfortunately I am experiencing problems with my blog today. Can’t upload anything and the pages are broken. New posts will go up when things get fixed.
In the meantime, for currency comments, please go to DailyFX.com
Parity Party
Only last year, the idea that the Australian Dollar would ever reach parity with the USD was laughable. Then, earlier this year, it became plausible. Now, according to an informal poll of analysts, it is not only possible, but likely....
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Australian Dollar: Parity Within Reach
This is a great article authored by one of my currency analysts at DailyFX
Who could have imagined that the value of one Australian dollar could be equal to one US Dollar? As recently as the beginning of this year, parity or an exchange rate of 1.0 still seemed like a far fetched idea because at [...]
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Hungarian Forint Nears 3-Year High
Raise your hand if you've ever heard of the Hungarian Forint. I didn't think so. The Forint is Hungary's currency, and it is performing quite well, having surged 2.5% against the Euro this month alone en route to a three-year...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.21.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:14 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Fed Chairman Kohn Paints Dour Picture
Japan Weighs Releasing Rice Reserves
Vietnam Considers Ending Rice Export Curbs
Is Inflation NExt Fight for the Fed?
UK Rentals See Boom as [...]
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
EU Economy Weakens
While the credit crisis has ravaged the economies of the US and the UK, the EU has largely been spared. First quarter GDP grew at a healthy annualized rate of 2.8%, helped by a whopping 6% expansion in Germany. However,...
3 Reasons Why the Fed Can Afford to Pause in June
Why the Fed Can Afford to Pause
This morning, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn made the most explicit comment that we have heard from a central bank official to date about pausing in June. He said that the “economy, markets should gradually improve” and “monetary policy appears to be appropriately calibrated for now to promote [...]
Monday, May 26, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.20.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:14 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Fed Vice Chairman Signals Pause
US Producer Prices Mixed
German PPI vs. ZEW
Australia RBA minutes indicate concerns on high inflation, growth uncertainty, hawkish stance
Bank of Japan Kept [...]
Sunday, May 25, 2008
It Could be A Good Week for the Dollar
The US dollar has started the week strong thanks to the better than expected leading indicators report. For the second month in a row, leading indicators increased, suggesting that the US economy may not be in a recession. Although the numbers are definitely encouraging, I believe that recession or no recession is just [...]
Saturday, May 24, 2008
US Treasury: China Still Not Manipulating RMB
In its semiannual report to Congress, the US Treasury Department once again did not cite China as a currency manipulator. For as long as the Forex Blog has been covering this issue, various interest groups have been pressing the Bush...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.19.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:31 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Friday, May 23, 2008
Fed is Downbeat on Economy
Yesterday's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve Bank's April meeting sent shock waves through the investing community. The text revealed that the Fed Board of Governors has become significantly more bearish on the outlook of the US economy,...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.16.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 7:39 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Housing Starts in U.S. Rise; Single-Family Construction Hits 17-Year Low
Fed, BOE Foreshadow End of Rate Cuts as Prices Rise
Oil Rises to Record Above $127 on [...]
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Dollar Rally & Intervention
After the G7 meeting, during which officials finally commented on the "volatility" in forex markets, the Dollar rapidly appreciated over 5%. Analysts had previously ascribed this rally to a variety of factors, both technical and fundamental. For example, the Dollar...
Isn’t the Weak Dollar Suppose to Help Manufacturing?
Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar has fallen 5.9 percent against the Euro and 6.7 percent against the Japanese Yen.
For many countries, including the US, a weak dollar has caused major problems ranging from deteriorating export growth to inflation. The one good thing that the weaker dollar was supposed [...]
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Central Banks Defend Krona
In the early months of 2008, the Icelandic Krona continued its downward slide, ultimately losing 26% of its value. Inflation is nearing 12%, the economy is in tatters, and there is a crisis of confidence affecting the banking sector. Having...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.15.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:43minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
New Zealand Dollar, One of the Weakest Pairs in the FX Market
Eurozone GDP Numbers
Factories Won’t Save the Day
Manufacturing in NY Unexpectedly Contracts
Industrial Production Weakens
US Consumer Prices
High [...]
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
AUD Draws Closer to Parity
The Australian Dollar is rapidly approaching parity with the USD, having risen 12.8% in the year-to-date. In fact, it recently notched a 24-year high against the Dollar. The currency's strength is connected closely with the US-Australia interest rate differential, which...
US Subprime and Housing Crisis 101
Here’s a secret, I am a BIG FAN of the Public Radio show This American Life.
This past week Ira Glass shares stories about how the sub-prime crisis has affected Americans and he provides an easy to understand rundown of how the sub-prime crisis unfolded.
Definitely worth a listen and hopefully you will become a fan as [...]
Monday, May 19, 2008
Dow Slides As Oil Reaches Record High
Goldman Sachs (GS: 185.41 -1.73 -0.92%) the investment bank that forecast a surge in oil prices back in 2005, has once again said oil will rise, this time to over $141/barrel in the second half of this year. And since oil traders are rallying on any possible good news, this forecast pushed oil up to [...]
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Is Risk Appetite Returning to the Markets?
Since last Thursday, carry trades have performed very well. USD/JPY has risen over 250 pips and the Dow appears to be carving out a near term bottom. This has led some investors to wonder whether whether risk appetite has returned.
The stock and credit markets have been stabilizing over the past few [...]
Correlation or Causation
The slight recovery of the USD has been accompanied by a couple of other interesting trends: falling gold and oil prices, and rising equity and bond prices. What is the connection here? With regard to gold and commodity prices, the...
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Weak Dollar Affects Study Abroad Programs
Yesterday I talked about how the weak dollar has affected the Film Industry. Today, the Wall Street Journal has an article about how the weak dollar is affecting study abroad programs.
With the greenback down 20% against the Danish krone and up 4% against the Argentine peso in the past two years, there [...]
UK: No rate Cuts for 2 Years
The US Federal Reserve Bank is known for ambiguity and vagueness. The Bank of England, it appears, is not trying to emulate this approach. The Bank put an end to speculation about its near-term monetary policy by announcing that it...
Friday, May 16, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.14.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:33 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
CPI Growth Weaker than Expected
Foreclosures in U.S. Climbed 65% in April to Record as Home Prices Dropped
Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some
Why Inflation wil not [...]
Canadian Dollar Spurred by Oil
Just a few weeks ago, the Central bank of Canada aggressively cut interest rates in order to slow the spread of the US economic downturn to Canada. Accordingly, investors were quite bearish on the Canadian Dollar. With the price of...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Old Gas Pumps Can’t Keep Up With Rising Prices
Found this great article online
REARDAN, Wash. (AP) — Mom-and-pop service stations are running into a problem as gasoline marches toward $4 a gallon: Thousands of old-fashioned pumps can’t register more than $3.99 on their spinning mechanical dials.
The pumps, throwbacks to a bygone era on the American road, are difficult and expensive to upgrade, and [...]
Daily Market Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD extends rally during New York
• Flows described as light and disorderly
Overnight Preview
• Look for book-squaring
• USD may have gotten ahead of itself
Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2%
• 8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.3%
• 9:15am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
• 10:30am USD Crude Oil [...]
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Weak Job Growth Does Not Always Equal Weak Retail Sales
The biggest event risk for the US dollar this week will be the April retail sales report. Since hitting a record low against the Euro the middle of last month, the greenback has strengthened significantly. However as the market finally latches onto the recent strength of the dollar, we are actually beginning to [...]
Q1: Dollar Down 4%
Although the first quarter of 2008 ended on March 31, it wasn't until last week that the Federal Reserve Bank finally finished tallying all of the data and released its obligatory report on the performance of the Dollar. On a...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Out of the Office Until Friday
I am headed out to California to speak at a conference of Investment Advisors. Therefore I will be out of the office until Friday.
View Larger Map
Yen Falls on Risk Aversion
"The credit crisis is over! No it's not! Yes it is!" Such back and forth represents the tenor of the debate currently transpiring in the financial markets. Every day seems to bring new economic data, which is quickly seized upon...
Monday, May 12, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.05.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:15 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Greenspan Says U.S. Is in a `Pale Recession’ That May Extend Through Year
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain
UBS May Eliminate 8,000 Jobs as First-Quarter Net Loss [...]
Positive Tone For Metals
A firm note tracked the Gold price overnight and it is currently $888.90. Closing above $880 adds to that positive tone and the next resistance level stands at $897. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $887.25, £453.906 and €573.604 (from $872.25, £445.48 and €568.61 yesterday).
Inflation still remains the main [...]
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Be Selective With Buying the US Dollar
Since the beginning of the week, I have warned of a potential dollar rally. At the time, we were basing our argument primarily on the flip in the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, technicals and a turn in Eurozone economic data.
However now we can add to that list a turn in US economic [...]
Jim Rogers Wants You To Buy US Dollars
Renowned investor Jim Rogers said today that he is expecting a US dollar rally in the currency markets. The Singapore-based Rogers, who predicted correctly the current commodities boom, said at the launch of the Barclays Global Agriculture Delta Fund in Singapore today he expects a “nice rally” in the US dollar because many people including [...]
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Forex Signals Over +1100 Pips Since Jan - Track Record (Updated!)
**We banked another winning trade for +115 pips (see what we did below). Our track record, equity curve, testimonials and trades have been updated
Why You Should Join BKForex Advisor:
1. Over +1100 Pips Since the Beginning of the Year
2. 80% Accuracy on Trade Calls
3. 31 out of 39 Winning Trades Since January
4. 35 out of [...]
New Forex ETFs
WisdomTree and Dreyfus Funds recently unveiled five new currency ETFs in order to fill a broad gap in the emerging markets category. Previously, investors were limited to such mainstay currencies as the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian...
Friday, May 9, 2008
April Non-Farm Payrolls Helps Carve Out Near Term Bottom in US Dollar
To the relief of dollar bulls, US corporations cut only 20k jobs in the month of April compared to the market’s -75k expectations. The unemployment rate also dropped from 5.1 to 5.0 percent, triggering a widespread dollar rally. The better than expected NFP number will help to confirm the near term bottom in the US [...]
Chinese Exporters Dump Dollar
The anecdotal evidence that China is diversifying its forex exposure away from the Dollar continues to mount. To date, most of the focus has centered around the Central Bank of China, which is passively diversifying its reserves into European and...
Thursday, May 8, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.02.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:46 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Non-Farm Payrolls Fall by 20,000 in April; Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 5%
Fed Raises Emergency Auctions to $75 Billion to Counter Liquidity Shortage
Euro’s Bull Run [...]
Commentary: The Dollar Conundrum
The Dollar is currently teetering on the edge of a precipice. Many analysts are predicting that, having recently retreated from a record low against the Euro, the Dollar's best days are still in front of it. On the other hand,...
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Will Non-Farm Payrolls Recover?
You can also read this non-farm payrolls preview on DailyFX.com
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp yesterday and hinted that they will pause when they meet again in June. In response to this shift, the market immediately priced in an 85 percent chance that interest rates will be left at 2 percent at [...]
CNBC Holds Million Dollar Trading Contest
FXCM, the online currency trading broker, has joined with CNBC as the Official Currency Trading Sponsor of the CNBC.com Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge. The Challenge, a virtual trading competition that was previously limited to stock trading only, will now feature both stock trading and currency trading. Competitors will be allocated $100,000 in “CNBC Bucks” to [...]
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Kathy Lien on Fox Business
I was on Fox Business this morning with Alexis Glick talking about inflation in the rest of the world.
Not really relevant to us trading G-10 currencies, but nonetheless fun and interesting.
Hit the play button and the video will load
Korean Won is Worst in Asia
In the year-to-date, the Korean Won has recorded the worst performance of any currency in Asia, having recently fallen to a 6-week low. The story is being driven as much by Dollar strength is by Won weakness. US equities have...
Monday, May 5, 2008
Fed’s FOMC Statements Are Getting Longer and Longer
**Catch me on Fox Business around 8:30am ET tomorrow (May 1)
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp to 2 percent, which was right in line with the market’s expectations. However the US dollar sold off because the market was disappointed that the central bank did not give them more. This appears to [...]
Strong Rise In US Consumer Spending Lifts Dollar
The broad performer of the day in the currency markets is the US dollar, which got a lift in sentiment from mostly better-than-forecast economic data and the Fed’s hint of a rate cut pause. First of all, US consumer spending rose 0.4% in March, twice market’s expectations. This is an encouraging sign even as personal [...]
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Kathy Lien on CNBC Power Lunch
I was on CNBC Power Lunch earlier this afternoon. Click on the video to watch!
I’m a short term dollar bull, long term dollar bear =)
Fed Lowers Rates
The Federal Reserve Bank recently lowered interest rates for the seventh, and perhaps final, time, bringing its benchmark federal funds rate to 2.0%. Since inflation is still hovering around the 4% mark, the Fed will probably be reluctant to lower...
Saturday, May 3, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.30.08
**Catch me on CNBC Power Lunch today. I should be on sometime between 1:00-1:45pm ET!
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 7:27 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Federal Reserve FOMC Rate Decision
US GDP and Chicago PMI Better [...]
Turkish Lira Set for Decline
2007 was a banner year for the Turkish Lira, which appreciated 21% against the US Dollar. However, in the year-to-date, the currency has returned nearly 10% of this gain, making it the third worst performing currency in the world. Turkey...
Friday, May 2, 2008
The Federal Reserve Needs to Pause
No one wants to be in the shoes of the Federal Reserve today as they begin their 2 day monetary policy meeting. Fed officials face a tough decision as they weigh the risk of deteriorating growth with the risk of rising inflation.
Unfortunately for the Fed, the problems with growth and inflation have only escalated [...]
April Marks Dollar Turnaround
Earlier this week, the Forex Blog speculated that the tide was turning on the Euro, which had retreated from the $1.60 threshold. Sure enough, the month of April saw the best monthly performance by the Dollar in over two years....
Thursday, May 1, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.28.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:46 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
FOMC Rate Decision vs. Non-Farm Payrolls
Federal Reserve Faces a Tough Decision
Bernanke May Have to Start Thinking Like Volcker
Euro and Oil at Crossroads
Japanese Inflation Coming
EoS: Fourth [...]
Forwards Gain Retail Appeal
The anecdotal evidence for surging retail interest in forex is cropping up everywhere. Moreover, investors are no longer even limiting themselves to the spot market, utilizing derivatives to speculate on future exchange rates. In the UK, for example, 10% of...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
EUR/JPY: Ready for a Top?
One of the strategies in my High Probability Trading eBook is called the Extension Fade. The strategy looks to fade a move after a currency pair has rallied or fallen for a certain number of consecutive days.
According to the eSignal chart below, EUR/JPY is now on its EIGHTH consecutive day of strength. [...]
Chinks in the Euro's Armor
2008 has witnessed a rapid appreciation in the Euro, which recently breached the psychologically important $1.60 barrier. Last week, however, the Dollar dramatically reversed course, leading many traders to speculate that the Euro's best days may be temporarily behind it....
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Could 1 Euro Equal 2 US Dollars?
The fourth time is the charm for the Euro as it finally pierces the 1.60 level against the US dollar. Despite slightly better than expected existing home sales in the US, a rebound in house prices, and news that the German Banking Association bailed out Duesseldorfer Hypothekenbank AG after a string of mortgage losses, [...]
AUD Nears Parity
The word "parity" is becoming a mainstay of traders in the forex markets. In 2007, it applied to the Canadian Dollar, which had rallied 70% over the course of five years to reach the mythical 1:1 level against the USD....
Monday, April 28, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.22.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:46 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates by 50bp, Signals More to Come
Bank of England Offers to Acquire Mortgage Securities
Calls for LIBOR Rate Shake-up Grows
German Banking [...]
BOC Cuts Rates
The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points, to 3.0%. The move was widely expected by analysts, although some of them had forecast only a .25% cut. Last week, economic data confirmed a mild...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Are Central Banks Out of Their Minds?
More central banks around the world are using public money to bail out private companies. Are central banks out of their minds? Are they running out of options?
Back in March, the Federal Reserve announced that would be lending banks as much as $200 billion in US Treasuries in exchange for [...]
Vietnam Dong to Slide Further
In the year-to-date, the Vietnamese Dong has fallen by .7%. That may not seem like much, but since the Dong/Dollar exchange rate is approximately 16,000 to 1, every .1% is meaningful. Unfortunately for Vietnam, analysts are predicting that the Dong...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.21.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:49 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Bank of America Reports 77% Profit Loss and Sells Part of Stake in Chinese Bank
Smaller Banks Begin to Pay Price for Boomtime Expansion
National City Gets [...]
The Strong Dollar Myth
When asked to discuss the official position of the USA with regard to its currency, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson typically invokes the "Strong Dollar Policy." According to former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, however, this policy is a "vacuous notion." Mr....
Friday, April 25, 2008
News Trading Calendar 04.20.08 - 04.25.08
1) Our Weekly Trading Calls for News Events have 70% Accuracy
2) Get 2-3 Trade Recommendations Next Week that Aim for 70-100 pips
Don’t Miss Out on Any of the Excitement! Become a Member. Get More Details.
The Full Event Risk Calendar that is categorized into 3 Trading Tiers is for [...]
FXCM Introduces ETF Alternative
Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) recently unveiled a product that represents a viable alternative to currency exchange trade funds. A currency ETF is "index-passive" because it is linked to an index and rises and falls in line with the value of...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
April Layoffs Continue to Build
The markets love the Google numbers today and stocks are up strongly. But lets not forget that the layoff tally has been building on a near daily basis. These are only a few of the big layoff announcements this past month. JPMorgan has yet to announce layoffs at Bear Stearns (which currently [...]
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
G7 Warns of Volatility
For the last few months, EU politicians have whined about the appreciating Euro. Aside from some token comments by the European Central Bank, however, the world failed to pay heed. That changed last week, when the G7 formally and harshly...
Dollar Hits New Record Low, Which is Good for Earnings
The dollar’s impact on US corporate earnings continue! Last night, IBM blew away Wall Street when it reported that its 2008 profit will top its previous projections. Interestingly enough more than half of their 11 percent revenue was due to currency fluctuations!
The dollar matters.
The companies that will do the best this [...]
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Yen Carry Trade Under Siege
Volatility levels on JPY/AUD forward contracts recently jumped to 25%, the highest level since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998. Combined with other factors, this suggests that the JPY/AUD carry trade, whereby investors borrow in low-yield Yen in order to...
Counting Down to Euro 1.60
Week after week I have called for the EUR/USD to break 1.60. Today, the currency pair hit an all time high and is inching ever so closer to that target. It will just be a matter of time before that level is broken at which time intervention risk will increase substantially. Hot [...]
Monday, April 21, 2008
USD May be Nearing Bottom
The USD continues to dominate conversation in forex circles, as investors ponder whether the currency will fall further or whether it has already sunk as low as it can go. One commentator recently encapsulated the debate into six factors, three...
The Impact of Food Prices Beyond the Developed World
I am a big believer that the next big shock to the global economy is not the weakness of the US economy, but skyrocketing food prices.
My good friend Shirley is a relief worker for Trocaire out of Mozambique, Africa and through her, poverty and hunger is an issue particularly dear to my heart.
When [...]
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Economists: Euro Correction Inevitable
In a research note, two economists from Morgan Stanley predicted that the Euro will soon come crashing down, failing in its bid to rival the Dollar as a viable reserve currency. They observed that in the beginning of the decade,...
Johnson and Johnson’s Earnings is Proof of Why the US Government Really Wants a Weaker Dollar
Strong Earnings from Johnson and Johnson is one today’s biggest stories. Although sales have increased in all 3 of its units (medical devices, consumer products and pharmaceuticals), if not for the weakness of the US dollar, drug sales would have actually declined.
Revenues increased 7.7 percent in the first quarter with currency moves contributing 5.1 [...]
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The Future of FX
For a recent article, EuroMoney Magazine pulled together some of the top currency analysts on Wall Street for a comprehensive discussion on the state of forex. The conversation zigs and zags, covering such varied topics as volatility, interest rates, trading...
Why Consumers May Need to Get Use to $110+ Oil
Oil prices are ripping higher this morning. 24 hours after the US retail sales report told us that gasoline receipts is the ONLY reason why the value of consumer spending increased last month, today’s rise in oil leads us to wonder how much more pain can the average consumer bear?
McCain’s Proposal = 2 Big [...]
Friday, April 18, 2008
RMB at Record Low
The lack of fanfare not withstanding, the Chinese Yuan, or RMB, continues to appreciate against the USD. This week, it crossed the psychologically important barrier of 7 RMB/Dollar, a level last seen in the 1990's. Since its revaluation nearly three...
Fox Business 04.14.08 - 04.18.08
I’m a Feature Guest on Fox Business’ Opening Bell this week. As a result my postings will be reduced to one a day. There will also be no In the Financial Papers (sorry!) since I have to leave for their studios at 7:30am and I’m not back in the office until 10:30am. [...]
Thursday, April 17, 2008
ECB Holds Rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4%. Despite signs that the EU economy is slowing, inflation is hovering around 3.5%, and the ECB has announced that its priority will be to maintain...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.11.08
**I will be a Featured Guest Fox Business’ Opening Bell 4/14-4/18 (9am-10am ET), so there will be no In the Financial Papers next week!
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 7:15 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
Dollar Sells [...]
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Retail Appeal of Forex Grows
With average daily turnover of $3 Trillion, the foreign exchange markets are the largest financial markets in the world. Despite boasting such impressive volume and liquidity characteristics, forex is nonetheless considered extremely risky, and thus viewed as the bastion of...
What Does it Mean When Trichet Uses Price Stability 7 Instead of 8 Times?
In his Godfather like tone, ECB President Trichet told the markets that “the sentiment of the Governing Council is the same as last time, so if there is any interpretation that it goes in another direction, it is a wrong interpretation.”
=
Trichet is one of the few central bankers whose words are as [...]
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Central Bank of Japan Appoints Leader
For several months, the Central Bank of Japan had been leaderless, creating a situation that was politically and economically awkward. Finally, after much debate, Masaaki Shirakawa, a former academic and veteran central banker, was appointed. It is unclear what effect...
Why G7 Meetings Matter
There is no time better than the present to recognize the dollar’s weakness. With the April 11 G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bankers just days away, government officials around the world have the power to stop the dollar from falling. But will they? Over the past 30 years, G7 meetings [...]
Monday, April 14, 2008
USD: Where is it Headed?
The last week has seen a spate of positive developments in the financial markets, including reassurances by several bulge bracket investment banks that their respective capital positions are in strong and in no need of shoring up. As a result,...
What Drove the US Dollar to a Record Low
Those who may have hoped for a recovery in the US dollar have been sorely disappointed. The greenback hit a record low against the Euro and it will just be a matter of time before the EUR/USD hits 1.60. Before you know it, we’ll be talking about the possibility of one Euro [...]
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Forex Leads Equities
In recent months, the credit crunch has ignited a global trend towards risk aversion. As a result, a correlation has developed between equities, which serve as a proxy for risk, and certain currencies. The Forex Blog previously covered the link...
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.10.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 5:15 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
ECB Leaves Interest Rates at 6 Year Highs
BoE Cuts Interest Rates by 25bp to 5.00%
US Dollar Hits Record Low
Dollar Breaches 7 Chinese Yuan
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
Saturday, April 12, 2008
USD: Worst Quarter in 4 Years
In the first three months of 2008, the USD notched its worst quarterly performance since 2004, falling over 8%. During the same period, the Dollar lost 10% of its value against the Japanese Yen and 6.4% against a broad basket...
Have Foreclosures Hit an Extreme?
As traders we know that when Main Street latches onto something, it usually means the top. Growing foreclosures have been one of the biggest concerns of Wall Street and with real estate brokerages now giving Foreclosure Bus Tours, it leads us to wonder whether foreclosures have hit a peak.
According to the following ARM schedule [...]
Friday, April 11, 2008
Barclays Introduces Carry Trade ETN
Through its trademark iPATH line of funds, Barclays Bank recently introduced a new ETN designed to mimic the carry trade. In accordance with this strategy, this note is linked to the performance of the Barclays Intelligent Carry Index, which aims...
Increasing the Accuracy of News Trading for FX Traders
On Wall Street Knowledge I$ Money
In the Currency Market Making Money Means Profiting From The News Of The Day
…But Where Can The Retail Trader Find The Edge To Make The Right Decision?
Every Week, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg Publish Their Proprietary Event Risk Calendar Making Calls on Key Market Moving Economic Data of the Day [...]
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Fundamentals Harm Emerging Market Currencies
Since the inception of the credit crunch, one of the themes in forex markets has been the surprising strength of the Dollar. Despite growing economic uncertainty, the US is still viewed as a relatively safe place to invest. On the...
British Pound: UK Housing Market Problems Worsen
** I miss everyone’s emails and comments. If you agree with me or even if you don’t, feel free to drop me an email or better yet, comment on the posts!
Last week, I indicate that the British pound could break 2.0 if disaster hits UK mortgage lenders. The currency is now trading below [...]
Sunday, April 6, 2008
In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 04.01.08
Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 06:39 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
Podcast Covers:
UBS Faces Large Writedown, CEO Steps Down
Americans Delay Retirement as Housing Stocks Swoon
RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Dovish Comments
Japanese Tankan Much Weaker than Expected 4 years
German [...]
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Japan (Also) Mulls Intervention
Yesterday, the Forex Blog reported that the risk of intervention in forex markets is growing, in order to prop up an ailing Dollar. The focus of the post was on the Euro, which is hovering below the record high of...
How Bad are US Stocks Doing?
US stocks have fallen over 7 percent since the beginning of the year. For US traders, investors and anyone with a 401k, this certainly feels like a bear market.
However, the performance of US stocks isn’t nearly as bad as the performance of equities in many other countries around the world. According [...]
The Rising Threat of Intervention
Last week, the Euro retreated from the record high of $1.60 that it achieved earlier in the week. Policymakers are still concerned, however, and are perhaps using this lull to come up with a plan of action should the Dollar...
Choosing Forex Software The Easy Way
Choosing forex software for your specific needs can be a minefield. There are so many different types and most of them do different things or different combinations of things. It becomes a little difficult to keep up with it all!
But there is no need to panic. Choosing forex software need only be as difficult as you make it and in fact can be a pretty easy decision with a little key information. Here are a few tips to help you on your decision.
Define Your Purpose.
Knowing exactly what you want to do is the key to choosing the correct software. Have one goal in mind for your purchase and you can’t really go wrong. But what should that be?
Well, most people are going to want their software to perform a specific task.
The most common tasks that are important to a foreign exchange trader are charting, forecasting and trading. Ok, that might be a little simplified, but these are the logical tasks that can be aided by having some good quality software help in the process.
Luckily these tasks are the most common that forex software provides help with.
Forex charting software will take the historical data that you provide it with to then display charts which you can use in your trading decision making process. Many foreign exchange traders rely on charts to make trading decisions and most of those charts are made with charting software. Getting some solid charting software can save you a lot of time and heart-ache and help with your trading decisions.
Trading software usually just keeps track of your trades on the market. It basically gives you a historical view of how you are doing. Again, it is only as good as the data you feed it so make sure your data is accurate. Some trading software will even help in the process of the trade by communicating with certain forex services online.
Forecasting software also uses historical data to help predict foreign exchange trends so that you can make better decisions with regard to your trades. There is some overlap with Charting Software in this category as charting software could also be partially regarded as forecasting software. This type of software is a big gun in the arsenal of a lot of the top forex traders so it is a good idea to get the best rather than the cheapest software in this category.
With these forex software types in mind, it is important that you define exactly what you want from your own software purchase and make your decision accordingly.
Some foreign exchange software will take care of all of the tasks above whereas other software will only be built for one specific purpose.
Knowing your own forex needs is the key.
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