Consumer Confidence Hits 16 Year Lows

The burden of high energy prices and a weak labor market has sent consumer confidence to the lowest levels in 16 years. Top that off with the fact that the Dow cracked the March lows this morning and the Fed’s deliberation today and tomorrow should heat up. Bernanke will need to walk fine [...]

CIRCOR International: Aggressive Growth Buy Alert

CIRCOR International, Inc.’s (CIR) share price has had an amazing year in a tough environment, rallying from a low point just above $35 to a high-water mark of over $54. The company just reported another healthy quarter in which income was up sharply from the same period last year. Based upon the current-year earnings projection, [...]

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.24.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
Bernanke Plays `Dangerous Game’ Signaling Higher Rates as Growth Stagnates
Dow Chemical Will Raise Prices as Much as 25% in July on Record Fuel Costs
Financial Firms [...]

Indian Rupee at 14-Month Low

The Indian Rupee has fallen to a 14-month low as a result of the sagging Indian stock market and surging inflation. Foreign investors have withdrawn $5.7 Billion from the Indian stock market in the first half of 2008, reinforcing the...

Federal Reserve vs. European Central Bank

The Federal Reserve begins their two day monetary policy meeting tomorrow and judging from the price action of the US dollar and reports from the press, dollar bulls are treading carefully on the fear that the Federal Reserve will be non-committal.
The continual rise in food and energy prices is adding to the burden [...]

Fed Holds Rates

At its most recent meeting, the Fed voted to hold rates steady at 2%. Only one week ago, 90% of investors (based on interest rate futures) had expected the Fed to lower rates. What changed? In the words of one...

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.23.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 6:47 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
Saudi oil boost fails to alleviate concerns
Eurozone indicators raise stagflation fears
Fed Fund Futures Flawed?
Dollar to get No Fed Aid?
More IPOs Are Pulled Than Priced
Capital Flow [...]

The Carry Trade Explained

The Carry Trade is one of the simplest strategies in forex, and if executed correctly, can also be one of the most profitable. The basic mechanics of a carry trade involve borrowing in one currency that offers a low interest...

Can Saudi Arabia Drive Down the Price of Oil?

This weekend, Saudi Arabia will be hosting an Oil Summit in the city of Jeddah, located on the coast of the Red Sea. They have invited executives from oil companies, leaders of nations and the world’s largest oil producers.

The big question for markets is whether or not Saudi Arabia can drive down the price [...]

US has History of Intervention

The looming possibility of forex intervention in response to the Dollar's continued weakness is causing an uproar in forex circles. Some analysts don't feel intervention is a real possibility because it is so inconsistent with the ideology espoused by the...

What Happens if UK CPI is Greater than 3%?

The British pound was hands down the best performing currency today as it rose against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. This was partially due to dollar weakness and the expectation that tomorrow’s consumer price figures will be hot.
Like the rest of the world, the UK has not been immune [...]

EU Inflation CounterBalances Oil

Forex analysts reckon the two most powerful forces weighing on the Dollar are commodity prices and European prices, so-to-speak. With regard to commodity prices, it seems plausible that rising commodity prices have contributed to a weaker Dollar, as much as...

5 Different Ways to Trade Currencies

Here’s an educational video of Sue Herera (CNBC) and I talking about the 5 Different Ways to trade Currencies. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.

Hirsch’s Long View vs Saudi’s Short View: How To Invest?

If I were asked to recommend an energy advisory team for the next President, I’d start with Robert Hirsch. Hirsch is a defense planning expert who has headed up major consulting assignments for the Defense Department among other clients and in 2005 published a major study of the impacts and potential mitigation of [...]

Kathy Lien on Fox Business Part 2

I will be a featured guest on Fox Business all next week with Alexis Glick. Tune in at 9am-10am ET
As a result, there will be no “In the Financial Papers”

It’s An “Educated-Take-All” Economy

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Barack Obama said that he was trying to put together tax and spending policies that dealt with two challenges. One is the … [visit site to read more]
[...]

US Consumer Prices, EU Referendum and G8 Meeting Weighs on Euro

Since the beginning of this week, the Euro has fallen more than 500 pips against the US dollar, its biggest weekly gain in 3 years. The prospect of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in August and/or September as well as key event risks over the next 48 hours has currency traders rushing [...]

Bright Future for Emerging Currencies

At the recent Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, forex was a popular topic of discussion among the investment strategists in attendance. Specifically, many of the participants were bullish about emerging market currencies. This is somewhat ironic, since these currencies have marked...

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.13.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:48minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
Consumer Confidence Hits 28 Year Lows
Consumer Prices Hot on Headline Level, Tepid on Core
Oil Falls as Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi Says Meeting Will `Stabilize’ Prices
Stimulus Checks Aid [...]

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.13.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:48minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
Consumer Confidence Hits 28 Year Lows
Consumer Prices Hot on Headline Level, Tepid on Core
Oil Falls as Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi Says Meeting Will `Stabilize’ Prices
Stimulus Checks Aid [...]

Intervention Drawing Near

G8 finance ministers met last week to discuss the detrimental effects of rising (commodity) prices on the global economy. Oil prices and commodity prices have in some cases doubled over the last year, contributing to a nasty surge in worldwide...

Intervention Drawing Near

G8 finance ministers met last week to discuss the detrimental effects of rising (commodity) prices on the global economy. Oil prices and commodity prices have in some cases doubled over the last year, contributing to a nasty surge in worldwide...

Fed Fund Futures are Pricing in 67% Chance of Rate Hike in Aug and 97% Chance in Sept

Could the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates? You betcha.
At least that’s what futures traders are banking on:
According to the latest Fed fund futures, the market has already priced in a 67 percent chance of a 25bp rate hike in August and a 97 percent chance of a rate hike in September.
The following [...]

Fed Fund Futures are Pricing in 67% Chance of Rate Hike in Aug and 97% Chance in Sept

Could the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates? You betcha.
At least that’s what futures traders are banking on:
According to the latest Fed fund futures, the market has already priced in a 67 percent chance of a 25bp rate hike in August and a 97 percent chance of a rate hike in September.
The following [...]

4 Types of Forex Trades

In a recent article for Seeking Alpha, financial journalist Ray Hendon offered an overview on the four principal strategies employed in the forex markets: carry trade, technical trade, fundamental trade, and arbitrage. The carry trade, which involves borrowing in a...

4 Types of Forex Trades

In a recent article for Seeking Alpha, financial journalist Ray Hendon offered an overview on the four principal strategies employed in the forex markets: carry trade, technical trade, fundamental trade, and arbitrage. The carry trade, which involves borrowing in a...

Tax Rebates Drives Stronger Retail Sales

Retail sales increased 1.0 percent last month as tax rebates and higher gasoline prices drove stronger consumer spending. With the exception of the Miscellaneous category, retail sales increased across the board. There was surprisingly no underlying weakness in the report but jobless claims did tick higher. The biggest increase in spending came from gas [...]

Tax Rebates Drives Stronger Retail Sales

Retail sales increased 1.0 percent last month as tax rebates and higher gasoline prices drove stronger consumer spending. With the exception of the Miscellaneous category, retail sales increased across the board. There was surprisingly no underlying weakness in the report but jobless claims did tick higher. The biggest increase in spending came from gas [...]

Euro Aloof to Irish "No"

Over the weekend, the people of Ireland resoundingly rejected the Lisbon Treaty, throwing up roadblock in the way of the most recent attempt to solidify the bond of the EU. Surprisingly, the Euro shrugged off the news and actually rose...

Euro Aloof to Irish "No"

Over the weekend, the people of Ireland resoundingly rejected the Lisbon Treaty, throwing up roadblock in the way of the most recent attempt to solidify the bond of the EU. Surprisingly, the Euro shrugged off the news and actually rose...

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.12.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:14minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
US Retail Sales Increase More than Expected
Japan to Raise Meat Prices as Corn Boosts Feed Costs
ECB Tells Market Rate Hike Likely to be One-Off
The topics at [...]

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.12.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:14minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
US Retail Sales Increase More than Expected
Japan to Raise Meat Prices as Corn Boosts Feed Costs
ECB Tells Market Rate Hike Likely to be One-Off
The topics at [...]

Euro Outshines Yen

Most of the stories and analysis featured on the Forex Blog concern the Dollar, or at the very least, how other currencies are performing relative to the Dollar. But there are many important currency pairs that don't involve the Greenback,...

Euro Outshines Yen

Most of the stories and analysis featured on the Forex Blog concern the Dollar, or at the very least, how other currencies are performing relative to the Dollar. But there are many important currency pairs that don't involve the Greenback,...

Will Retail Sales be Strong or Weak?

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com and Abhi Chakraborty
Published: June 11, 2008
US retail sales are due for release on Thursday and the degree of consumer spending could play a big role in determining where the US dollar may head next. Despite continued deterioration in the labor market, economists expect retail sales to [...]

Will Retail Sales be Strong or Weak?

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com and Abhi Chakraborty
Published: June 11, 2008
US retail sales are due for release on Thursday and the degree of consumer spending could play a big role in determining where the US dollar may head next. Despite continued deterioration in the labor market, economists expect retail sales to [...]

Anavex: Outlook For This Drug Company

More than 5.2 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease. Another 7.7 million Americans will suffer with it by 2030, and another 16 million will suffer by 2050. And there’s a yearly price tag of $148 billion to treat these patients.
No one is quite sure what causes the disease that gradually robs sufferers of memory [...]

Anavex: Outlook For This Drug Company

More than 5.2 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease. Another 7.7 million Americans will suffer with it by 2030, and another 16 million will suffer by 2050. And there’s a yearly price tag of $148 billion to treat these patients.
No one is quite sure what causes the disease that gradually robs sufferers of memory [...]

5 Reasons Why the US Dollar Will Not Hit a New Low

Despite the prospect of a rate hike from the European Central Bank, here are 5 reasons why I do not expect the US dollar to hit a new record low against the Euro:
1) Tug of War Between Bernanke and Trichet
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Trichet appear to be competing for the Title of [...]

5 Reasons Why the US Dollar Will Not Hit a New Low

Despite the prospect of a rate hike from the European Central Bank, here are 5 reasons why I do not expect the US dollar to hit a new record low against the Euro:
1) Tug of War Between Bernanke and Trichet
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Trichet appear to be competing for the Title of [...]

Rouble: The Next Reserve Currency

Apparently, Russia has aspirations to turn its currency, the Rouble, into an international reserve currency. Moreover, according to an official with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this plan is not that far-fetched. Despite soaring inflation and political oppression, Russia's economy...

Rouble: The Next Reserve Currency

Apparently, Russia has aspirations to turn its currency, the Rouble, into an international reserve currency. Moreover, according to an official with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this plan is not that far-fetched. Despite soaring inflation and political oppression, Russia's economy...

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.11.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:47minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
China and Vietnam Takes Steps to Clamp Down on Inflation
Bond Markets Pricing in a Fed Rate Hike
ECB Member Stark Says Central Bank Does Not Plan Series [...]

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.11.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:47minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
China and Vietnam Takes Steps to Clamp Down on Inflation
Bond Markets Pricing in a Fed Rate Hike
ECB Member Stark Says Central Bank Does Not Plan Series [...]

Soros Bearish on Dollar

George Soros, one of the most well-respected investors who sits in the same echelon as Warren Buffet, just released his book on the current state of the world's financial markets. His conclusion is that a "super-bubble" is forming. Connecting to...

Soros Bearish on Dollar

George Soros, one of the most well-respected investors who sits in the same echelon as Warren Buffet, just released his book on the current state of the world's financial markets. His conclusion is that a "super-bubble" is forming. Connecting to...

5 Things that Move the Currency Market

Here’s a video Sue Herera of CNBC and I talking about the 5 Things that Move the Currency Market. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.

5 Things that Move the Currency Market

Here’s a video Sue Herera of CNBC and I talking about the 5 Things that Move the Currency Market. Enjoy!
Give it a second to load after the banner.

Vietnam Devalues Dong

The Central Bank of Vietnam has effectively devalued its national currency, the Dong, to bring it in line with market fundamentals. Pressure had been building under the Dong due to soaring inflation, currently estimated at 25%. While 2% devaluation was...

Vietnam Devalues Dong

The Central Bank of Vietnam has effectively devalued its national currency, the Dong, to bring it in line with market fundamentals. Pressure had been building under the Dong due to soaring inflation, currently estimated at 25%. While 2% devaluation was...

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 06.10.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
- Bank of Canada Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
- Oil Prices Drive US Trade Deficit Higher
- Bernanke Reiterates Concern for Inflation
- Oil Jump Catches Speculators Off [...]

Talking up the Dollar

When it comes to forex, the old adage actions speak louder than words doesn't always hold. In fact, words can be quite effective on their own in holding down or propping up a currency. For a while, the threat of...

Ben Bernanke: Turning a Blind Eye to Weak US Data?

On Monday evening, Bernanke reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to contain inflation, driving the US dollar higher in what would otherwise have been a quiet Asian trading session. Over the past 24 hours,the US government has come out with all guns blazing as US Treasury Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Governors Geithner and Fisher have commented [...]

How Far Has the Dollar Really Fallen?

Kurt Brouwer offers his take on the falling USD over at Fundmastery Blog: Let’s start with how far the dollar has fallen. One problem with our media is that the news of the day is often one-sided and it seldom...

US Dollar Intervention: Is it Possible?

Is intervention in the US dollar possible?
Well anything is possible in this world, but despite jawboning by Bernanke and Paulson, I do not expect physical intervention in the dollar by the US government.
The last time that the Federal Reserve intervened in the currency markets was shortly after the launch of the Euro. [...]

Shekel is One of the Big Boys

The Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) Bank, which performs the thankless job of settling the nearly $4 Trillion in currency trades completed each day, recently announced that it will now settle trades involving the Israeli Shekel. This is quite an honor...

Photos from Asia!

Here are some photos from my Asia trip. Enjoy!
Stop #1: The traffic in Ho Chi Minh City

Small Caps Strongly Outperforming

Dollar Deeps Further on Uneployment Rapid Growth

The  U. S. dollar dropped down today against as the unemployment rate soared in the U. S. Yesterday EUR/USD gained from the hawkish statement by Jean-Claude Trichet (he said that he will probably raise the interest rates on ECB’s next meeting), today it grows because of the poor U.S. fundamentals.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 49,000 in May — below the expected 60,000 dropdown, but above the revised April 28,000 loss in the jobs. Unemployment [...]

Is There An Asian Financial Crisis On The Horizon?

I posted yesterday about how a strengthening US Dollar could potentially benefit Israeli stocks that trade in the US. I was asked by some readers how come I think that the USD is poised for a rally? The answer…FIFO.
FIFO is an accounting term that stands for ‘first in first out.’ With the global economy on [...]

Net Profit Results of Fixed Stops and Targets

ECB, Unemployment Weigh on Dollar

In the near future, this day may be looked back on as important in the battle between the Dollar and Euro that is currently being waged. The previous month had been relatively kind to the Dollar, which had gradually clawed...

Dollar Tries to Keep Yesterday Gains

Dollar is still trying to hold its yesterday gains against euro, as it can benefit from the fundamental indicators released today in U.S. EUR/USD rose only from 1.5433 to 1.5449 today after losing more than 100 pips yesterday.
Productivity in the nonfarm business sector grew at 2.6% annually and seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter of 2008 — slightly better than the preliminary estimate (2.5%).
ISM services (non-manufacturing) index for [...]

China's Forex Reserves Near $2 Trillion

When China's foreign exchange reserves breached the $1 Trillion mark in November 2006, it was a momentous occasion. Over the following 18 months, however, analysts yawned as the reserves nearly doubled in size. In the month of April, alone, China...

Pro Commentary Lite ... 5th June 2008 ... EURUSD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 Price:                            1.5390

Resistance:	1.5425	1.5460	1.5490	1.5531
Support:	1.5383	1.5361	1.5328	1.5283

Bias:

The 1.5361-85 area provides support while gains will need a break back above 1.5500 and 1.5627

Daily Bullish:	Extreme tight range trading didn’t really clears up the picture too well but overall we’ve not seen a break below the 1.5361-85 support identified yesterday. Thus morning has seen a dip to 1.5383 and if this holds then we should see a move back above the 1.5425 pivot area for a recovery back to 1.5482-00 again but beyond that we need to be cautious. Next major resistance would be the old 1.5627 corrective high. Recovery from 1.5361 would imply gains to 1.5560.
MT Bullish:	5th June: We are hitting key supports now between 1.5361-85 but where we see the low affects how far a recovery can be seen. Above 1.5600-27 would be needed to suggest potential for a recovery towards 1.5720-60.
Daily Bearish:	This morning’s losses have hit the 1.5383 support and even if it breaks I still see support at 1.5361 and each of these two supports have potential for a recovery to 1.5500 at least. Thus only look for extension lower on a break below 1.5360 and if seen it should trigger follow-through to 1.5328 minimum and probably to the 1.5255-83 area at least.
MT Bearish:	5th June: We are now testing critical supports but only below 1.5360 suggests a more direct attack back at the 1.5283 low and possibly even further to 1.5188 while a larger target is at 1.5082.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

4^th June

We have seen the decline to the 76.4% retracement at 1.5409 perfectly and this now provides the next test as to whether we are seeing a triangle within a larger consolidation or whether we could see a move all the way down to 1.5283 again in a possible flat correction. I can’t even rule out loses beyond should the 1.5817 high have been Wave (b).

In any event, at this point I feel an internal 261.8% projection in a minor Wave iii rests at 1.5361 and this should be the most we see today. Before 1.5361 is a small 161.8% projection in a minor Wave c at 1.5385 so this 1.5361-85 area appears to be important.

Breach would be bearish for 1.5328 and 1.5283.

Ian Copsey

See Also

• Pro Commentary
  Probably the most comprehensive technical report in the market

Dollar Rises to 3-Month High

After sinking to a record low of $1.60 against the Euro in April, the Dollar has rallied to a 3-month high. According to analysts, the interest rate story appears to have driven the sudden reversal. In short, expectations surrounding the...

Does a 95% Win Rate Result in Net Profitability?

Bernanke: No More Rate Cuts

Over the last few weeks, the focal point of discussion surrounding the current US economic crisis has shifted from economic growth to inflation, and commentators are now invoking the stagflation of the 1970's. Moreover, the Fed is experiencing mounting pressure...

A Chink in the Euro

The upcoming 10th Anniversary of the European Central Bank is being greeted with a flurry of commentary and analysis of its brief history. The consensus is that both the bank and the Euro currency over which it presides have come...

Headed for Asia!

I will be in Asia for 2 weeks, so there will be no new posts on this blog. For Currency Comments, please visit DailyFX.com
If you are in Asia, please come by to say hi! I would love to meet you at one of my upcoming seminars:

May 31 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Asia Trader and [...]

In the Financial Papers: Today’s Top Forex News 05.23.08

Here is the “In the Financial Papers Radio Broadcast” (Length: 4:01 minutes). The player should load automatically. Please let me know if you like it. Contact Kathy
In the Financial Papers:
















 
Podcast Covers:
Existing Home Sales Drop, Medium Price of a Home Dropped
Asia to cut Subsidies as Oil Prices Hit $135
Ford Hit By Rising Oil
Think $4 Gas is [...]

Korea May Regulate Borrowing

Over the last two years, South Korea's overseas borrowings more than doubled, to $388 Billion. Nervous, perhaps, that Korean businesses may be overextending themselves, the government is seeking to regulate such activities. Based on the way the forex markets responded...